A dynamical systems approach to optimizing irrigation strategy under the influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks.

The soil-moisture feedback describes how precipitation amount, timing and intensity react to spatial anomalies in surface moisture. For heterogeneous moisture distributions with moist/dry patches on the scale of 10− 50km, numerical studies supported by observations indicate a negative soil-moisture feedback, where it rains more over dry patches (Imamovic, 2018; Rieck et al., 2014). The circulation established by the heterogeneous soil-moisture patches not only modifies the spatial rain distribution but allows for more water to be extracted from the atmosphere, thereby increasing the domain mean precipitation. We here suggest that the negative soil-moisture feedback can be exploited when irrigating agricultural land: if farmers cooperate by following a spatially heterogeneous irrigation pattern, they can increase both their collective time-mean precipitation and thus the total water available for growing crops. However, the spatially non-local nature of the feedback allows individual farmers to exploit this strategy, thereby saving their own resources; a typical ‘tragedy of commons’ situation. We formulate this setup in terms of an optimisation problem and study its parameter phase space, both analytically and numerically, in order to understand optimal rules and the consequences of the players’ choice to cooperate vs. compete. Different constraints in terms of water availability (reservoir) and average soil moisture as defined by the evaporation timescale are explored. Reducing the details of the land-atmosphere interaction into simple feedback parameters helps to elucidate the complex interactions between the precipitation, soil moisture and the human intervention by irrigation. Taking into account the negative soil-moisture feedback in irrigation models opens up new strategies to optimise water management and thereby increase crop yield

How the other half lives: CRISPR-Cas's influence on bacteriophages

CRISPR-Cas is a genetic adaptive immune system unique to prokaryotic cells used to combat phage and plasmid threats. The host cell adapts by incorporating DNA sequences from invading phages or plasmids into its CRISPR locus as spacers. These spacers are expressed as mobile surveillance RNAs that direct CRISPR-associated (Cas) proteins to protect against subsequent attack by the same phages or plasmids. The threat from mobile genetic elements inevitably shapes the CRISPR loci of archaea and bacteria, and simultaneously the CRISPR-Cas immune system drives evolution of these invaders. Here we highlight our recent work, as well as that of others, that seeks to understand phage mechanisms of CRISPR-Cas evasion and conditions for population coexistence of phages with CRISPR-protected prokaryotes.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figure

Diffusion on networked systems is a question of time or structure

Network science investigates the architecture of complex systems to understand their functional and dynamical properties. Structural patterns such as communities shape diffusive processes on networks. However, these results hold under the strong assumption that networks are static entities where temporal aspects can be neglected. Here we propose a generalized formalism for linear dynamics on complex networks, able to incorporate statistical properties of the timings at which events occur. We show that the diffusion dynamics is affected by the network community structure and by the temporal properties of waiting times between events. We identify the main mechanism—network structure, burstiness or fat tails of waiting times—determining the relaxation times of stochastic processes on temporal networks, in the absence of temporal–structure correlations. We identify situations when fine-scale structure can be discarded from the description of the dynamics or, conversely, when a fully detailed model is required due to temporal heterogeneities

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Short- duration (1-3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth's climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short- duration and long- duration (\textgreater1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K-1), while in some regions, increases in short- duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large- scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short- duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks